Last year, the names making headlines were the ones every parent recognizes. USC eliminated 974 positions against a $200 million deficit. Stanford cut 363 jobs tied to a $140 million budget reduction. Northwestern eliminated 425 positions after a $790 million federal funding freeze. Duke lost 599 employees to buyouts and dozens more to layoffs. All four had the same explanation: federal research funding disruption and new endowment tax exposure, not empty seats in the classroom (Northwestern University, 2025; Duke University, 2025; USC, 2025; Stanford University, 2025).

Throughout my career in education, I had the opportunity to sit across the table from college and university partners building articulation agreements and dual enrollment pipelines, the kind of quiet infrastructure that assumes a stable partner on the other end. What wasn’t always clear was whether they had the financial resources to meet such agreements.

That assumption no longer holds, and this year the crisis has moved past the institutions with the biggest endowments to absorb it.

By September 2026, the names in the headlines had changed. Full Sail University cut 180 jobs after its enrollment fell 13.1 percent in a single year. Illinois Institute of Technology laid off 160 faculty and staff amid international enrollment losses and research cutbacks. Johns Hopkins cut 110 positions as its federal research portfolio shrank. Temple University laid off 40 employees, its second consecutive year of cuts despite recent enrollment gains, a detail worth sitting with, since it means enrollment alone doesn't explain what's happening there. Minnesota State Mankato is cutting staff and raising tuition against a $22 million shortfall, despite strong enrollment, because state funding hasn't kept pace (Unglesbee, 2026).

None of these are household names. That's the point. The institutions with billion-dollar endowments could absorb a federal funding shock for a year. The ones now cutting don't have that reserve, and the number behind all of them is a national one: full-time college staff shrank 6.6 percent in 2025 compared to the year before, according to survey data from the College and University Professional Association for Human Resources (Unglesbee, 2026). That is not four universities having a hard year. That is a sector contracting.

Underneath the federal funding story sits a second, slower one that has nothing to do with Washington. The number of American high school graduates peaked in 2025. WICHE has been projecting this decline for over a decade, and 2026 is the year the curve actually bends down, with the falloff continuing for roughly fifteen more years (Lane et al., 2024). Fitch, Moody's, and S&P all issued negative outlooks for higher education heading into this year, Fitch's second consecutive negative call, citing the shrinking pool of prospective students alongside funding uncertainty (Fitch Ratings, as cited in Higher Ed Dive, 2025).

These two pressures, federal policy and demographics, are not the same crisis wearing two names. They move on different timelines and they demand different responses. A university losing federal research funding needs to diversify revenue and rebuild trust with Washington. A university losing its applicant pool needs to rethink recruitment, program mix, and who it's built to serve. Confusing the two leads to the wrong fix, and Temple and Minnesota State Mankato are the clearest evidence that a school can be cutting for reasons that have nothing to do with how many students walked through the door.

There's a newer factor pulling at the edges of the same pipeline, worth naming without overweighting it. Venture-backed alternatives to the traditional four-year degree, project-based, no grades, built explicitly to appeal to ambitious students who might otherwise enroll, are drawing real capital and real attention. In a recent conversation, Replit founder Amjad Masad and a16z Academy co-founder Gagan Biyani described a model designed to pull capable 18-to-22-year-olds away from college entirely, not because they can't get in, but because someone convinced them not to try. It's not driving this year's layoffs. But it's a preview of a third kind of competition higher education hasn't had to answer to before, and it's backed by people who intend to grow it.

Three different pressures, one budget cycle. The leaders navigating this well aren't the ones with the deepest reserves. They're the ones who can tell their board, specifically, which of these three forces they're actually up against, because a strategy built for the wrong one wastes a year the sector doesn't have. If your institution is cutting right now, ask which crisis you're actually in before you decide what to cut.

Duke University. (2025, December 29). Duke University cut $299 million through buyouts, building closures in response to federal cuts. WITN. https://www.witn.com/2025/12/29/duke-university-cut-299-million-through-buyouts-building-closures-response-federal-cuts/

Fitch Ratings. (2025, December 5). Higher education faces 'deteriorating' 2026 outlook, Fitch says. Higher Ed Dive. https://www.highereddive.com/news/higher-education-faces-deteriorating-2026-outlook-fitch-says/807222/

Lane, P., Falkenstern, C., & Bransberger, P. (2024). Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates (11th ed.). Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. https://www.wiche.edu/knocking/

Northwestern University. (2025, July 29). Northwestern University cuts 425 jobs in face of federal funding pressure. Higher Ed Dive. https://www.highereddive.com/news/northwestern-university-425-jobs-cut-layoffs-funding-freeze-investigations/756356/

Stanford University. (2025, August 5). Stanford University lays off 363 employees. Higher Ed Dive. https://www.highereddive.com/news/stanford-university-lays-off-363-employees/756962/

Unglesbee, B. (2026, September 10). The latest in college layoffs: Full Sail, IIT and Johns Hopkins. Higher Ed Dive. https://www.highereddive.com/news/the-latest-in-college-layoffs-full-sail-iit-and-johns-hopkins/829962/

University of Southern California. (2026, March 29). USC budget cuts and layoffs impact students, staff, faculty. Daily Trojan. https://dailytrojan.com/2026/03/29/usc-budget-cuts-and-layoffs-impact-students-staff-faculty/

From Vendor to Partner: How Edupreneurs Can Deliver Real Value in Challenging Times

The piece I wrote about school district financial uncertainty applies just as directly to the pressure now reaching higher education. The vendors and partners who hold up under a funding shock are the ones who can show a district or an institution exactly what value they deliver, not the ones who assumed the relationship would renew itself. Any edupreneur serving colleges or universities right now should read this alongside this week's issue. The pressure has moved up the chain, and the same discipline applies.

"Technological Advancements in Educational Thought Leadership"

In Chapter 10, Future Directions in Educational Thought Leadership, I write that “technological advancements, demographic shifts, and social justice movements are driving significant transformations in education.” I wrote that line before this year's enrollment numbers landed, but it is exactly the frame this week's piece runs on. The chapter argues that leaders who treat these forces as one undifferentiated wave of change miss what each one actually demands of them. That is the same mistake a budget built for the wrong pressure makes.

This week: Read the opening section of Chapter 10. Then ask yourself: of the three forces reshaping your institution's budget, which one are you actually planning for, and which one are you assuming will pass?

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